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According to data from the General Administration of Customs，2022Year-on-year increase in China's export value7%，Reaching a record breaking scale3.59Trillions of dollars。however，The export trend for the whole year rose first and then declined、Steep slope，The year-on-year growth rate has decreased by35Percentage points。12Monthly exports continue to decline，Year-on-year decrease9.9%，Expanded compared to last month1.2Percentage points。

As European and American economies enter a technological recession cycle，Global trade is accelerating into the cold winter，Export of Economy of Asia plummeted。however，The more serious challenge is not trade“Cold Winter”，But the trade pattern is undergoing drastic changes。The former belongs to periodic difficulties，The latter is fundamental、Long term challenges。

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global supply chain crisis，The Russo-Ukrainian War Triggered the Rupture and Reorganization of the Global Energy Supply Chain，These two major risk events have caused governments all over the world to pay high attention to Supply chain security。stay“Development and Security”Under the new global theme of，European and American governments are aggressively going to Russia for oil and gas and accelerating commodification to East Asia，Promote diversification based on suppliers（diversification of suppliers）、Localization（Reshoring）、nearshore（Nearshoring）Production with You'an（Friend-shoring）Global industrial chain restructuring。

2022Annual global trade data display，Trade relations between some countries are strengthening，The terms of trade between other countries are accelerating to deteriorate、Even unhooking and chain breaking，The global trade landscape is undergoing major changes。

This article analyzes the causes of the evolution of global trade patterns、Characteristics and Trends。

Logic of this article

one、Global Trade Winter

two、Dramatic changes in the trade landscape

three、China's trade advance and retreat

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01、Global Trade Winter

12-，Denominated in US dollars，China's total import and export value5341.4USD100mn，Year-on-year decrease8.9%。among，Export3060.8USD100mn，Year-on-year decrease9.9%；Import2280.7USD100mn，Year-on-year decrease7.5%；trade surplus780.1USD100mn。

Export aspect，Mechanical and electrical products are the biggest drag on exports。Year-on-year decrease in exports of mechanical and electrical products12.9%，Less than last month1.2Percentage points，Far below the annual average growth rate2.5%，Dragging down the export growth rate of the month7Percentage points。

Except for cars and ships，The year-on-year growth rate of other electromechanical products has significantly decreased。among，Ship exports maintained strong growth year-on-year and month on month。Year-on-year growth of automobiles90.7%，Higher than the annual average growth rate82.2%。however，Automobile export amount58USD100mn，Significant decline compared to last month18100 million US dollars。mobile phone、Household Electric Appliances、Audio and video equipment and its components、The year-on-year growth rate of automatic data processing equipment and its components has decreased by more than20%。The export amount of integrated circuits has increased compared to last month，But the year-on-year growth rate has significantly decreased，The drag on the export growth rate of the current month has reached4Percentage points。

Labor-intensive products are also a drag，Dragging down exports for the month0.8Percentage points。among，clothing、Toy exports decreased year-on-year10%，Textile exports decreased year-on-year22%，Far lower than the year-on-year growth rate of labor-intensive products' annual exports8.9%。

Another thing to pay attention to is，The export amount of high-tech products has increased compared to last month30Over 100 million US dollars，But it has decreased compared to the same period last year25.8%。

By export destination，Except for ASEAN's positive contribution to exports for the month，Other economies are all drag items。12China's exports to ASEAN increased year-on-year in the month7.5%；Significant decline in exports to the United States19.5%，Narrow compared to last month5.9Percentage points，Exports to the European Union plummeted17.5%，Expanded compared to last month6.9Percentage points；Decline in exports to Japan3.3%，Narrow compared to last month2.3Percentage points。From an absolute perspective，For the United States、ASEAN、South Korea's export value has increased compared to last month，But for the European Union、Japan's export value has decreased。

from2022Starting from the fourth quarter of the year，Global trade enters a cold winter，Rapid decline in exports of Economy of Asia。The main reason for the cold winter of trade is the technical recession in European and American economies。12JPMorgan Chase Global Comprehensive for the MonthPMI、Global ManufacturingPMIIndex recorded48.2%、48.6%，Respectively compare11Monthly increase0.2And fall back0.2Percentage points，Separately continuous5Months and4Months below threshold。

although12US non farm data for month shows that the job market remains stable、powerful，howeverMarkitmanufacturingPMIstay10Month falls below the boom and bust line；Despite the European manufacturing industryPMIThere was a slight rebound（47.8%，Increase from previous values0.7Percentage points），But the index has been continuous6Months below the boom and bust line。

European and American manufacturing industryPMIHighly related to export growth of Economy of Asia。Two manufacturing industries in the United StatesPMIData shows that the economy is approaching the edge of deep recession and financial risks。

U.S.A12Monthly Supply Chain Management Association（ISM）PMIRecorded48.4，Compared to last month, it has decreased0.6Percentage points，Slightly lower than market expectations。It should be noted that，since2000Since the beginning of the year，ThePMIThe index has fallen to and below four times in total48%，Four times of financial crisis or rapid economic recession，Respectively2000Dot-com bubble crisis in、2003Annual economic recession（The unemployment rate has risen to6.3%）、2008The annual financial crisis and2020COVID-19 crisis。nowadays，manufacturingPMIApproaching again48%，ISMManufacturing new orders from peak61.7Descend to45.2，Second only to the financial crisis and the COVID-19 epidemic crisis。

AnotherPMIThe index reflects the same trend。U.S.AMarkitmanufacturingPMIstay2022y10For the first time in a month, it falls below the boom and bust line，reach12Monthly decrease46.20%。If excluded2020During the COVID-19 pandemic in，This is2008The lowest level since the financial crisis in。

Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index fell for four consecutive months，stay2022y11Monthly decrease-19.4%、12Month is-13.8%。since2000Since the beginning of the year，The index has fallen below three times-20%，Three times of financial crisis and economic recession。

in addition，Last year，The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed，Recently, it has fallen below again1000；The World Container Composite Index has continued43Weekly decline，Global shipping confidence index is low。

visible，The export of Economy of Asia has not yet reached the hardest period、Has not yet crossed the turning point。however，For China，The more challenging challenge is not trade“Cold Winter”，But the trade pattern is undergoing uncertain changes。The former belongs to periodic difficulties，The latter is fundamental、Long term challenges。

Under the cold winter of global trade，For some countries, the significant change in trade patterns by political forces can be even worse，Further reduce its trade share、Impact on strategic industries and worsen the terms of trade between the two countries。

actually，China's exports are rapidly declining，Among them are factors of economic recession in Europe and America，But the impact of changes in trade patterns cannot be ignored。The export trends between China and South Korea are highly similar，Korea11Monthly export growth rate decreases14%，But exports to Europe and America still maintain positive growth，The growth rate of exports to the European Union is10.3%，The growth rate of US exports is6.6%。

From the perspective of product categories，11Monthly integrated circuit exports decreased year-on-year30%，Month on month decrease17%；A year-on-year decrease in automatic data processing equipment and its components28%，Month on month decrease8%；Year-on-year decline in high-tech products23.9%，Month on month decline9.2%。12-，Automatic data processing equipment and its components、The year-on-year growth rate of integrated circuits and high-tech products has decreased by more than20%。

Why did the export decline of technology products far exceed that of other products？Apart from the decline in the information technology industry in Europe and America，The US technology ban has prompted US companies to become cautious in purchasing technology products from China；meanwhile，The scale of high-tech products imported by Chinese enterprises has decreased，Limited export capacity to some extent。

Taking integrated circuits as an example，2022Since the second half of this year，The export and import of integrated circuits have significantly decreased simultaneously。among，Imports from South Korea and Taiwan, China declined significantly。12The monthly import quantity of integrated circuits is399One billion，Year-on-year decrease25.5％。Limited import of integrated circuits reduces the production capacity and export competitiveness of technological products。

recent years，The evolution of global trade pattern shows two major trends：Many countries promote the return of manufacturing industry through laws and fiscal policies，Increase the onshore proportion of the industrial chain，Strengthen the vertical depth of strategic industries，The global industrial chain is showing a trend of evolution from horizontal to vertical；Based on national security、Political Risk and Ideology，Some countries seek to diversify their suppliers、Near shore and friendly shore production，The global industrial chain presents a pattern of evolution from global collaboration to local collaboration。The two major events that are happening, namely the removal of oil and gas from Russia and the removal of commodification from East Asia, are rapidly driving the vertical and local restructuring of the global industrial chain，Triggering a major change in the global trade landscape。

02、Dramatic changes in the trade landscape

2008After the financial crisis of，Economic globalization is beginning to ebb；2018China–United States trade war，The terms of trade between the two countries are rapidly deteriorating；2020COVID-19 pandemic，Global supply chain once interrupted、disorder；2022The Russo-Ukrainian War broke out in，Europe and America firmly decouple from Russia's oil and gas industry chain。among，COVID-19“suddenly”Enhanced the sense of crisis in commodity supply chains in European and American countries，The Russo-Ukrainian War has greatly increased the anxiety and concern of all countries about the security of energy supply，Major countries around the world are increasingly concerned about supply chain security issues。

“Security and Development”Gradually replacing the past“Peace and development”，Becoming a consensus and a new theme for global political entities。The political forces of major countries around the world are driving the restructuring of the global trade map，Economic and trade policies“Security Development”As a prerequisite，technology、Greatly increased sensitivity to financial and trade risks，Strategic emphasis on supply chain risks。On supply chain adjustment and restructuring strategies，Governments emphasize supplier diversification（diversification of suppliers）、Localization（Reshoring）、nearshore（Nearshoring）And production by You'an（Friend-shoring）。among，energy、raw material、The industrial chain adjustment of high-end technology is the most obvious。

2022Annual global trade data display，The trade between some countries is rapidly distancing or even decoupling，Trade relations between some countries are strengthening，The global trade landscape of the past is collapsing，A new pattern has not yet formed。

since1990The first major change in economic globalization since is the radical decoupling of European and American economies from Russian oil and gas，And is restructuring the energy finance supply chain。The Russo-Ukrainian War has profoundly changed the global energy pattern，Russian energy fully exits the European and American markets，Significantly reduced share and position in global trade；meanwhile，Europe is willing to pay the price of high inflation and euro turmoil to get rid of its dependence on Russian oil and gas，Implement supply diversification、Near shore and friendly shore production strategies，Continuously increasing North America、Energy imports from Australia and the Middle East，To establish a long-term stable and secure energy supply chain。

For a long time，Russia is the EU's largest importer of these three major fossil energy sectors。data display，2021Russia's share of imported natural gas from the European Union in45%，Russia's share of EU crude oil imports27%，The proportion of Russian coal in EU hard coal imports46%。however，After the Russo-Ukrainian War，EU's Joint Action to Quickly Promote Energy Independence，Request for2022Reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of the year，Plan to2027Abandoning Russia's fossil fuels completely in。

Current data display，This goal may be achieved ahead of schedule。12month，The share of Russian natural gas in the European market has increased from2Of the month40%Descend to7.5%；Expected to arrive2023The year has further shrunk to5%within。Germany, which once heavily relied on Russian energy, has reduced its proportion of natural gas imports to Russia20%，And declared that2023y2The month will be cleared to zero in advance。International Energy Agency forecasts，reach2023y，Europe's natural gas procurement from Russia will continue to decrease to200Less than 100 million cubic meters。1-3d，The natural gas transported by Russia to Europe is only378010000 cubic meters，Lowering to the lowest level in history since the dissolution of the Soviet Union。Large purchases from North America in Europe、North Africa、Middle Eastern liquefied gas replaces Russian pipeline natural gas。According to estimates from Eurasian Consulting，2022y 12 -，Liquefied gas tankers have transported record breaking200100 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas，It is the purchase of natural gas quantity from Russia16times。visible，The global energy supply pattern is undergoing changes。

From the perspective of Russia，Energy exports are the backbone of Russia's foreign trade，It is also the most important role played by Russia in the global industrial chain。nowadays，Europe and America quickly go to Russia for oil and gas，And for Russian energy、technology、Comprehensive blockade of finance and trade，This means that Russia will be isolated from economic globalization。

Another major variable in the global trade pattern is the commodification of East Asia and the technological blockade against China being promoted by Europe and America，And is restructuring the global supply chain of goods and technology。

The deterioration of China US trade terms began with the trade war launched by the Trump administration against China。nowadays，Reduce import dependence on Chinese goods and reduce technology exports to the Chinese market，Has become a political consensus between two houses and one government in the United States。The difference is that，The strategy adopted by the Biden administration is not a direct trade war，It's about adjusting the commodity supply chain，Reduce the supply of goods from China，Promote multinational corporations to transfer production capacity to the Indo Pacific region，To achieve supply diversification and ensure the security of commodity trade。Under this major trend，The EU is implementing policies to reduce dependence on third-party markets and establishing trade prevention mechanisms，China's trade with the European Union is also difficult to sustain。

The COVID-19 once triggered a crisis in the chip supply chain，Geopolitical risks triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian War hit Asia，The combination of two major factors has led to the chip industry becoming the focus of geopolitical competition。Biden government introduced《Chip and Science Act》，Reconstruct the chip supply chain based on You'an production，Attract Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China，Excluding Chinese Mainland at the same time。This is an exclusive trade policy based on localization and friendly shore production，Directly reducing the volume of technology trade between the two countries。The expansion of the blockade of advanced technology is attempting to gradually alienate China from the global supply chain of high-end technology products。

Driven by the commodification of East Asia and the technological blockade against China，The proportion of trade between China and the United States continues to decline。data display，2022y，The United States has been downgraded to China's third largest trading partner，ASEAN leaps to become China's largest trading partner。As of12-，China's exports to the United States have experienced negative growth for five consecutive months year-on-year；Three consecutive months of negative growth in exports to the European Union；The annual growth rate of exports to the United States is lower than that of China to the European Union、For ASEAN and for“The Belt and Road Initiative”country。

From the perspective of trade statistics in the United States，The proportion of goods purchased by the United States from China continues to decline。data display，2016-2018y，China's average share of the tonnage of imported goods from the United States36%，Other Asian countries only account for25%。and2022last year9Months，China's share has decreased to30%，Other Asian countries use32%Leapt to the top in terms of share。

visible，Going to Russia for oil and gas and going to China for commercialization are impacting the global trade landscape，Trade relations between some countries are becoming estranged or even decoupled，And the trade relations between other countries are strengthening，Localized industrial supply chain appears。

The trade between Europe, America and ASEAN is advancing rapidly，Europe, America, and Vietnam、Represented by Europe, America, and India。The United States implements the Indo Pacific strategy，Promote multinational corporations to export production capacity to India、Transfer from Vietnam and other countries。2022last year11-，Vietnam's total foreign trade volume6738.2USD100mn，Year on year growth11.8%；among，Vietnam's largest exporter is the United States，Accumulated exports to the United States1015USD100mn，% of total exports30%about；Vietnam's trade surplus with the European Union294USD100mn，Year on year growth42.4%。

The United States and Mexico、Canada's Trade Enhancement。Mexico as the United States“Nearshore production”A few countries，stay2020y7US Mexico Canada Agreement（USMCA）After formal effectiveness，Trade between the two countries is advancing rapidly。2022last year10Months，Exports between the United States and Mexico are relatively low2021Year-on-year growth19%to5724USD100mn，Import growth24%to7530USD100mn。The United States is Mexico's largest trading partner，The proportion of Mexico's exports to the United States to its total exports is approximately80%，The proportion of imports from the United States to its total imports is approximately50%。

Canada is a traditional trade ally of the United States，Balancing“Nearshore production”and“Production by You'an”attribute，Stable growth in trade between the two。at present，U.S.A、Free Trade Agreement between Mexico and CanadaUSMCACovering global trade volume28%，And the proportion of trade volume between EU member states in the total global foreign trade is only18%。

Increased trade stability between the United States and its traditional ally Europe、Closer energy cooperation。Europe is the United States“Production by You'an”Our most important partner。After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War，Energy exports from the United States to Europe、Technical cooperation between the two，Based on shared values and political interests。2022last year10Months，Growth in US exports to the European Union30%to2906USD100mn，Import growth13%to4559USD100mn。

The global trade pattern is evolving like this，What does it mean for China？

03、China's trade advance and retreat

In the global supply chain system，China's biggest advantage is the construction of a comprehensive industrial system。Globally16First、In the second category of industries，China has15The added value of each industry ranks first in the world。among，leather、Textile、The global proportion of industrial added value of basic metals and metal products exceeds30%。

however，China at the top of the industrial chain，Mainly technological innovation、Financing investment、Talent cultivation and cooperation，Lack of international pricing power and competitiveness。thus，Industrial transfer、Technical blockade and commodification to East Asia，Bringing challenges to China's economic growth model。

previously40y，China Utilizes Low Cost Labor、Land resources absorb large-scale international capital and technology to develop manufacturing industry，Export a large amount of goods and create a continuous flow of foreign exchange，Foreign exchange funds are used to support large-scale infrastructure construction in China、Manufacturing and Real Estate Investment。international capital 、Technology Input and Chinese Commodity Export，Are the two pillars of China's macroeconomic growth model，It is also the core content of Sino US trade。In short，International capital and technology input are crucial for the Chinese economy。

How to respond to the challenges of major changes in international trade？

As a response，On the one hand, China does not want to compete with Europe and America“Unhooking and chain breaking”，Strive to maintain stability in trade and investment cooperation with some countries；On the other hand, based on“Security and Development”Proactively promoting trade relations with some countries。

China Strives for Germany in Europe，Striving for Korea in Asia，To some extent, in response to the joint siege between the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea。Germany and South Korea are traditional trading partners of China，2022The top two countries in terms of annual investment growth rate in China are South Korea and Germany。front10Months，Korea、Germany's actual investment in China has increased separately106.2%、95.8%，Far higher than the national year-on-year growth rate based on comparable standards14.4%。

2022The German manufacturing industry experienced an unprecedented Energy crisis in，German companies have significantly reduced production capacity，We have to increase imports of chemicals from China、mechanical、Steel and other commodities。meanwhile，German Prime Minister Schultz Led a Visit to China by Legacy German Enterprises，Help these enterprises that are deeply rooted in the Chinese market to transfer more production capacity and investment to China。

South Korea appears hesitant in the United States' joint action to restructure the global chip industry chain、Torment。Chips have been a product of globalization since their inception。Korean chip exports highly rely on the Chinese market，And highly reliant on US and global cooperation in terms of technology and capital。2022last year9The proportion of South Korean semiconductor and related parts exports to total exports to China in the past month83.6%。China tries to win South Korea to break the blockade of chip technology to realize the independence of Semiconductor industry。

Affected by the Energy crisis，China is strengthening energy diversification trade，Enhancing cooperation with Russia、Mongolia、Bulk trade cooperation between Saudi Arabia and South American countries。

Going to Russia for Energy in Europe and America、Against the backdrop of commodification and technological blockade in East Asia，Significant Enhancement of Sino Russian Trade、And it's quite subtle。data display，2022First three quarters of the year，Year-on-year growth in trade volume between China and Russia32.5%，achieve1360.89USD100mn。among，China's exports to Russia522.44USD100mn，Year on year growth10.3%；China imports from Russia838.45USD100mn，Year on year growth51.6%（Energy oriented）。5-7-，Russia Continues3Becoming China's largest oil supplier last month。

Since the Shale gas revolution in the United States，Saudi Arabia's reliance on US diplomacy is becoming increasingly anxious，Now entering a critical period of seeking diplomatic diversification。2022end of the year，Further Development of Diplomatic Relations between China and Saudi Arabia，Both sides signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement，Enhancing energy efficiency、Investment in infrastructure and other fields、Trade and Cooperation。2022y8-，Saudi Arabia's Anti Super Russia，Becoming China's largest oil supplier again。

in addition，To reduce dependence on bulk imports from North America and Australia，During the coal trade friction between China and Australia，Increase coal imports from Mongolia，Increase imports of raw materials and grains from South America，Increase oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia。

China andRCEP、Strengthening ASEAN's trade relations，Sustainability deserves attention。

China's accession《Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership》（RCEP）after，AndRCEPmember state、Rapid growth of ASEAN trade。2022Year pairRCEPother14Import and export of member countries12.95Trillion yuan，increase7.5%，As a percentage of the total import and export value of foreign trade30.8%。among，To ASEAN10The country's trade is growing rapidly，For Indonesia、Singapore、Myanmar、Cambodia、Laos' import and export growth rates have exceeded20%。

ASEAN replaced the European Union and the United States as China's largest trading partner。2022y，The import and export amount to ASEAN has reached6.52trillion，Year on year growth15%，And for the European Union、The United States is divided into5.65Trillion and5.05Trillion yuan，The year-on-year growth is respectively5.6%and3.7%。

European and American countries will transfer some of their production capacity toRCEP（Mainly ASEAN），RCEPImport a large amount of intermediate goods from China again。2022y，China's response toRCEPImport and export of intermediate products from other member countries8.7Trillion yuan，increase8.5%，Proportion of total import and export value to other member countries during the same period67.2%。among，Electronic components、Battery、Individual growth of automobiles15%、50.3%and71.6%。

Vietnam's largest exporter is the United States，The largest importing country is China。2022last year11-，Vietnam's cumulative imports from China1099USD100mn；Trade deficit with China569USD100mn，Year on year growth14.1%。

however，Due to ASEAN's own insufficient domestic demand，China's trade with ASEAN is prone to decline due to declining demand from Europe and America。in addition，With the long-term import of European and American demand into ASEAN，Trade relations within ASEAN will strengthen，Forming a relatively complete industrial supply chain。With the continuous improvement of the ASEAN industrial chain，ASEAN's production capacity will also enhance its substitutability for China。

however，For China，“Nearshore production”、“Production by You'an”than“Supplier diversification”The threat is greater。The United States shifts production capacity to ASEAN，China as an important trading partner of ASEAN，Can also obtain a certain amount of indirect trade。however，If the United States shifts production capacity to“nearshore”Mexico and“You'an”Europe，So the trade substitution formed is almost absolute。

The scale of trade between Mexico and the United States is enormous，And it's growing rapidly。data display，2021Large American manufacturers purchased chemicals from Mexican suppliers in、Production and construction materials and other commodities have increased year-on-year6times。Contemporaneous period，The supply quantity of Chinese suppliers to the United States has decreased9%。At the recent North American Leaders'Summit，US President Biden privately“urge”President of Mexico Lopez Formulates New Policies，Transferring the production of key chip technologies from Asia to North America。at present，The chip industry in Mexico is mainly Intel、Skyworks、Assembly and test business invested by Texas Instruments。Mexico、The United States and Canada have reached an agreement，Three parties jointly promote investment in North American semiconductor manufacturing industry，Including identifying chip investment opportunities and key mineral resources，And education that supports advanced technology。

Since the last century90Since the new round of globalization in the 1990s，Russia、The Middle East provides large-scale energy supply to Europe and even the world，China provides large-scale supply of goods to European and American markets，Large scale supply of technology and capital from Europe and America to emerging economies，Together, they form the main body of the global trade map。nowadays，Radical removal of oil and gas from Russia in Europe and commodification from East Asia in the United States，Global political forces are profoundly changing the global trade landscape，Based on supplier diversification、Localization、The new supply chain produced by nearshore and friendly banks brings new trade opportunities，It also increases global trade、Uncertainty in International Finance and Geopolitics。